Posts Tagged ‘employment’

Rising jobless claims and Wednesday's much weaker ADP private jobs report have severely diminished forecasts for the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls employment report coming out at 8:30 ET. Predictions were already low at the start of the week - averaging 190k versus 244k the month before - and now it's more common to hear prayers for anything above 100k.

"Last week, we had penciled in a below-consensus 170,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, but following this week's cast of dismal economic characters, we'll be happy to take any six-figure number," said BMO Capital Markets an hour before the report.

RDQ Economics commented Thursday: "We look for private payrolls to have risen 150,000 in May, which compares to an average monthly gain of 253,000 over the last three months (and we see total nonfarm payrolls up 140,000)."

Nomura Global Economics added: "We expect tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls to show employment expansion, but not at the levels required for a robust jobs recovery. Our forecast is for a 85k increase in nonfarm payrolls; 110k rise in private payrolls; 10k decline in manufacturing employment; and, an unchanged unemployment rate (9.0%)." 

The Unemployment Rate is still widely expected to inch down to 8.9%.

Thirty minutes before the report, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.02%, versus 3.03% at Thursday's close. The two-year note remains at 0.46%, and the 30-year yield is down one basis point at 4.24%. Like Treasuries, mortgages are mostly flat. The FNCL 4.0 coupon is +3/32 at 96-28 and the 30 year FN4.5 is +1/32 at 100-27.

Equity trading is equally cautious: S&P 500 futures are 5 points lower at 1,307.50 and Dow futures are 32 points down at 12,207.

Commodity prices are lower. Light crude oil fell 0.79% overnight to $99.61 per barrel, and gold prices dropped 0.29% to $1,528.20 per ounce.

At 10am ET, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is supposed to do better in May compared to April, when a sharp drop-off pulled the index down 4.5 points to its lowest level since August. The median estimate puts the index at 54, up from 52.8 in April but below the 57.3 recorded two months before. The modest improvement would draw a start contrast with its manufacturing cousin, which on Wednesday plummeted to 53.5 from April's 60.4.

"The ISM non-manufacturing index likely gave up a bit more ground in May on some sogginess in the economy," said analysts at IHS Global Insight. "The services side of the economy and distribution are still growing, but the economy has lost momentum."

Economists at Citigroup pointed out that markets normally focus on the employment component of this report, but with the nonfarm payroll report coming out ninety minutes earlier, it probably won't command much attention.

Also at 3:30pm ET, Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, speaks to the Stanford Finance Forum in Stanford, California.

Freddie Mac has released its April 2011 Economic Outlook.

Below is a copy of the text. We have taken the liberty of calling attention to a few important points.....

Cherry blossoms sprouting around the Washington, DC area were a sure sign that spring had arrived after a cold winter. As these flowers were in full bloom, the U.S. Department of Labor released the employment report for March: Unemployment declined for the fourth straight month to 8.8 percent, and net employment sprung up by 216,000, the largest monthly job gain since last May and a hopeful signal that the labor market was warming up. On a March-over-March basis, employment was up by 1.3 million.

The March employment spurt was largely reflected in several service-providing industries, mining, and manufacturing. In contrast, local government employment was down again, and construction and real estate employment remained weak. Construction jobs have largely trended downward over the past five years, with total construction employment down nearly 30 percent from its peak in April 2006. Likewise, jobs in the real estate industry (which is distinct from construction in the Labor Department’s count) remain more than 100,000 below (7 percent less than) the peak during the spring of 2006. While the monthly job gains for this sector have been weak and inconsistent, nonetheless real estate employment was up by 10,000 since last November.

The housing market may also be poised to shake off the frigid sales pace of January and February, when new home sales slipped to the lowest pace since the Census Bureau began the series in 1963. Driven by low mortgage rates and home prices well below peaks, homebuyer affordability is at the highest level in at least forty years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Indeed, sales contract signings for existing homes were up in February, positioning the market for a bounce up in settlements during the second quarter, the traditional time for the seasonal upswing in sales.

The encouraging labor market report coupled with high homebuyer affordability should translate into a home-sales pick up, starting this spring. Sales comparisons with a year ago will understate sales growth, because these comparisons are affected by the 2010 tax-credit that helped to bring many buyers into the market through last April. Look for home sales to be up about 5 percent in 2011 compared with 2010, on a calendar year basis.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining its accommodative monetary policy and Treasury note purchase program, short-term rates will remain low and supportive of household borrowing. The coupon difference between 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages has gradually widened to about three-quarters of a percentage point, in part reflecting the lower yields on shorter-term instruments. Homebuyers generally opt for 30-year financing, while borrowers who refinance tend to choose 15-year (and to a lesser extent, 20-year) fixed-rate loans. Refinancers not only benefit from the much lower interest rate on 15-year loans, but the faster amortization schedule means they accumulate home equity wealth more quickly.

While refinance continues to account for over two-thirds of all loan applications, it will likely account for a much smaller share later this year, for two important reasons. First, the number of borrowers who are “in-the-money” and financially positioned to refinance falls with each passing  week, as more close on their new low-rate loan. Second, the consensus view is that long-term interest rates will inch higher over 2011, reducing the financial gain and incentive to refinance.

The rental market should continue to have gradually warmer market conditions as well, with rents continuing to pickup and vacancies dipping on class-A properties and in stronger metro areas. Rents and vacancy rates are also stabilizing for most other properties and locales.

So expect the economy and housing market to follow the cherry trees’ lead: Shake off the cold and show a bit of spring in activity.

Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist

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Overseas stock markets are mostly in the red this morning, but equity futures at home are pointing to a strong open ahead of spending, manufacturing, and construction data. Dow futures are up 37 points to 10,997 and S&P 500 futures are up 5.50 points to 1,189.00. Meantime, WTI crude oil is trading 26 cents higher at $86.41 per barrel and Spot Gold is up $3.15 to $1,182.35. The 2 year Treasury note is -0-01 at 100-01 yielding 0.98% and the 10 year Treasury note is -0-09 at 99-13 yielding 3.695%. Sentiment elsewhere is in reverse, however, despite a Eurozone agreement for Greece. “Global markets are lacking the will to rally this morning ― although the U.K., Japan and China are closed ― and the euro failed to stabilize, tumbling below $1.322, despite hard work over the weekend that…(read more)